Calfornia needs a way out of this prolonged drought, but don't count on El Niño to provide it.

Scientists with NOAA says the chances that El Niño conditions could develop this fall -- where warming ocean surfaces can change weather patterns -- are up to 82 percent.

Sounds good, but they're also saying that this looks like it will be a moderate, rather than strong event and while the strong El Niños have brought soaking rains, moderate to weak events have only delivered wetter-than-normal winters about half of the time.

Still, scientists say nature is unpredictable and we'll just have to wait and see. Most of the state has seen just half its average rainfall this year.