A new Field Poll shows Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz among California Republicans, but that is only part of the story. A poll of 558 registered Republicans likely to vote in the June 7th primary shows Trump and Cruz dividing up different parts of the state.
Field Poll Director Mark DeCamillo says among Republicans, some of California is Trump Territory.
"All the counties in southern California that surround Los Angeles that would go up to Ventura, go east to the Inland Empire and go south to San Diego and Orange," DeCamillo described.
Meanwhile, some of the state is Cruz Country.
"In Los Angeles County itself, among Republicans, Cruz is ahead, and L.A. County has a huge population and quite a few congressional districts," DeCamillo said.
That matters because the delegates in the Republican primary will be apportioned by how well a candidate does in those congressional districts.
DiCamillo says their survey shows Trump's perceived anti-immigrant rhetoric is hurting him in Southern California while Ted Cruz' Hispanic heritage allows him to do better than you might expect a Texas conservative to do there.
"Trump is doing best among large white, non-Hispanic, Republican populations. Cruz is doing better among ethnic Republicans, so L.A. has a greater than average share of ethnic Republicans, Latinos in particular," DeCamillo said.
It is a different story in the central and northern part of the state, where Trump leads in the Bay Area while Cruz is ahead in the Central Valley and the Sierra.
What it means is that, if the numbers hold, Trump could win California, but not get an appreciably larger number of delegates from the state than Cruz does.
The poll also indicates that a third of each candidate's delegates might not support the other candidate if he is the nominee.
"If you ask Republicans here in the state how would they feel if Trump were to become the nominee, 48 percent say they'd be dissatisfied and upset," DeCamillo stated. "If you ask the same question about Cruz, 34 percent."
DiCamillo says both candidates have very high negatives, 74 percent for Trump, 64 percent for Cruz, when the entire electorate, Republicans, Democrats and Independents, are polled.
A final interesting factoid is that 54 percent of Trump supporters polled here in California say they voted for another unconventional outsider, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, in the 2003 recall election.
NewsRadio KFBK's Mike Hagerty is a native Californian. Born in Los Angeles, raised from age nine in the Eastern High Sierra, Mike's broadcasting career began at age 15 in Bishop, and took him to San Luis Obispo, Ukiah, and then out of state to Reno, Las Vegas and Phoenix before coming back home.Since arriving at KFBK in late 2013, Mike has been Editor of the KFBK Morning News, Managing Editor, Assistant News Director and is now News Director, in addition to being a part of the KFBK Afternoon News with Kitty O'Neal.
"My mom and dad lived in Sacramento for many years before moving to L.A., and had a lot of friends here that we'd come back to visit. As a kid, I'd spend a week of most summers here in Sacramento. I grew up on movies at the Crest and ice cream at Gunther's and Vic's. Because of that, Sacramento feels like home."
In addition to covering every presidential election since 1980, the 1992 Los Angeles riots, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and the O.J. Simpson trial, Mike has been an automotive journalist for almost 20 years, reviewing new cars on radio, TV and online, and is a member of Western Automotive Journalists in the Bay Area.
"The fascination with cars is genetic, I think. My dad loved them so much, he bought a gas station when he lived here in Sacramento, just so he could be around cars all day. "
Mike and his wife Rhonda (also a native Californian, and a 34-year resident of the Sacramento area) live in Folsom with their two miniature Schnauzers. Between them, they have four grown children. Mike and Rhonda are avid travelers and love the outdoors, movies, live theater and musical performances and great Northern California food and wine and locally-brewed beer.